Independent and calibrated, published every morning and scored each day against the grid operator, in the open.
The central forecast and its calibrated 80% range, over what actually happened.
DK1 is western Denmark — Jutland and Funen — one of Europe's windiest onshore regions. OpenWindCast forecasts its day-ahead onshore wind output.
Average error as a share of installed capacity (nMAE), against the grid operator's published day-ahead forecast.
Share of days the actual output landed inside the 80% range, and how wide that range was. Tighter at the same coverage is better.
Average forecast error as a percentage of installed capacity.
The interval the actual output should land in 80% of the time, calibrated daily.
Energinet's published Day-Ahead 11:00 forecast, a fixed yardstick that is never used as an input.
The public scoreboard is, and stays, free. For operational use the forecast is available earlier and in machine-readable form.