Live record · latest forecasts for Sat 10 Oct
Forecasting electricity prices and power output
Day-ahead forecasts for 15 European bidding zones, scored every day against the grid operator's own forecast and the price the auction clears at.
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Wind power
22%
lower error than the grid operators’ own forecasts
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Electricity price
54%
lower error than a naive price benchmark
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Public record
1,668
forecasts scored in the open
Every zone, one record
The latest forecasts and how each zone is scoring
Wind accuracy counts live days only, from the date each zone went live. Price accuracy is measured on every scored delivery day. Both are recomputed from the public record every few minutes.
| Zone | Price forecast, day average | Price accuracy | Wind forecast, 11:00 | Wind accuracy, live | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 214 MW Sat 10 Oct · 5% of capacity | 50% lower error than APG 84 live days · closer on 67% | |
| Denmark DK1 Price Wind | €30.48 Sat 10 Oct · €0 to €100 | 64% lower error than naive 34 days · average miss €17.91/MWh | 606 MW Sat 10 Oct · 15% of capacity | 21% lower error than Energinet 108 live days · closer on 58% | |
| Denmark DK2 Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 331 MW Sat 10 Oct · 45% of capacity | 2% higher error than Energinet 108 live days · closer on 45% | |
| Finland Price Wind | €28.64 Sat 10 Oct · €7 to €65 | 56% lower error than naive 43 days · average miss €18.02/MWh | 2,370 MW Sat 10 Oct · 25% of capacity | 21% higher error than Fingrid 107 live days · closer on 47% | |
| Flanders Price Wind | €42.47 Sat 10 Oct · −€1 to €130 | 57% lower error than naive 46 days · average miss €16.03/MWh | 602 MW Sat 10 Oct · 35% of capacity | 56% lower error than Elia 110 live days · closer on 77% | |
| France Price | €41.70 Sat 10 Oct · €0 to €143 | 65% lower error than naive 30 days · average miss €15.97/MWh | Not covered | Not covered | |
| Germany Price Wind | €31.96 Sat 10 Oct · −€1 to €104 | 62% lower error than naive 36 days · average miss €18.35/MWh | 27.8 GW Sat 10 Oct · 41% of capacity | 49% higher error than the German TSOs 109 live days · closer on 37% | |
| Great Britain Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 8,403 MW Sat 10 Oct · 58% of capacity | 32% lower error than NESO 91 live days · closer on 63% | |
| Greece Price Wind | €184.76 Sat 10 Oct · €9 to €275 | 48% lower error than naive 27 days · average miss €17.63/MWh | 78 MW Sat 10 Oct · 1% of capacity | 42% lower error than IPTO 59 live days · closer on 61% | |
| Ireland Price Wind | €88.01 Sat 10 Oct · €9 to €268 | 56% lower error than naive 48 days · average miss €16.05/MWh | 2,409 MW Sat 10 Oct · 36% of capacity | 57% lower error than EirGrid 73 live days · closer on 75% | |
| Italy Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 1,291 MW Sat 10 Oct · 10% of capacity | 37% lower error than Terna 84 live days · closer on 68% | |
| Poland Price Wind | €102.79 Sat 10 Oct · €58 to €161 | 46% lower error than naive 29 days · average miss €20.82/MWh | 4,348 MW Sat 10 Oct · 41% of capacity | 30% lower error than PSE 96 live days · closer on 60% | |
| Portugal Wind | Not covered | Not covered | 77 MW Sat 10 Oct · 1% of capacity | 8% higher error than REN 94 live days · closer on 47% | |
| Spain Price Wind | €125.15 Sat 10 Oct · €1 to €222 | 38% lower error than naive 44 days · average miss €17.54/MWh | 1,619 MW Sat 10 Oct · 5% of capacity | 5% lower error than REE 110 live days · closer on 45% | |
| Wallonia Price Wind | €42.47 Sat 10 Oct · −€1 to €130 | 57% lower error than naive 46 days · average miss €16.03/MWh | 469 MW Sat 10 Oct · 28% of capacity | 61% lower error than Elia 98 live days · closer on 79% |
How it works
Forecast, score, publish. Every day.
- 01
Forecast the day before
Each day brings a forecast for tomorrow: the electricity price for every hour of the auction day, and wind power output at 11:00 local time.
- 02
Score against the real outcome
Wind is scored against metered output, beside the grid operator's own forecast. Prices are scored against the price the auction clears at, beside a naive benchmark.
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Keep every day, for good
A published forecast is never edited. The days it loses stay in the record next to the days it wins, and the whole record is open to download.
What does OpenWindCast forecast?
Two things, for European bidding zones. The day-ahead electricity price for every hour of tomorrow, in 9 markets, and onshore wind power output at 11:00 local time tomorrow, in 14 zones. Each forecast is made the day before delivery and scored once the outcome is known.
How accurate are the forecasts?
Across the live record, the wind power forecasts have 22% lower error than the grid operators' own day-ahead forecasts on average, and are ahead of the operator in 10 of 14 zones. The electricity price forecasts have 54% lower error than a naive benchmark on average across 9 markets, over 337 scored days so far. Every zone page shows its own record, including the zones and days where the forecast lost.
What are they scored against?
Wind forecasts are scored against the metered output, side by side with the grid operator's own day-ahead forecast for the same hour. Price forecasts are scored against the price the day-ahead auction actually clears at, and compared with a naive benchmark, because no grid operator publishes a price forecast with a record.
Can a published forecast be changed later?
No. Every forecast is written once and never edited. Days the forecast gets wrong stay in the record beside the days it gets right.
Is the data free to use?
Yes, with credit, under the CC BY-NC 4.0 licence. Every zone's record is also available as JSON at /api/zone/<zone>.json. For more information, email m.sahaf@live.com.